Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end of

Evolution, neurology, psychology, RE's, paleontology etc.

Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end of

Postby Bill » Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:49 am

A cut and paste from a piece published in the English edition of Russia Today:

World-famous physicist Stephen Hawking told the BBC he believes future developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to eradicate mankind.

The Cambridge professor, who relies on a form of artificial intelligence to communicate, said if technology could match human capabilities “it would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate.”

He also said that due to biological limitations, there would be no way humans could match the speed of development of technology.

“Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete and would be superseded,” he said.

“The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”

Hawking suffers from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a form of motor neuron disease, and uses AI technology as part of a system which senses how he thinks and predicts which words he will use next.

His bleak forecast came in response to questions about updates to his AI communication systems.

His latest upgrade, developed by Intel Corporation over the past three years, will allow the professor to write up to 10 times faster and communicate more effectively with friends, family and students.

“With the improvements made, I am now able to write much faster, and it means that I can continue to give lectures, write papers and books and, of course, speak with my family and friends more easily.”

“This new system is life changing for me, and I hope it will serve me well for the next 20 years,” he said.

Other technology specialists do not share Hawking’s grim outlook. Rollo Carpenter, creator of Cleverbot, said he believes mankind will maintain control over technology.

“I believe we will remain in charge of the technology for a decently long time and the potential of it to solve many of the world problems will be realized,” he said.

Carpenter’s software responds to stimulation from conversations with actual humans, and has the capability to learn from its previous interactions.

Cleverbot has scored highly in the ‘Turing test’, which is designed to examine how closely machines can replicate human behavior.

“We cannot quite know what will happen if a machine exceeds our own intelligence, so we can't know if we'll be infinitely helped by it, or ignored by it and sidelined, or conceivably destroyed by it,” Carpenter added.

Technology and a rise in the capabilities of AI are already affecting workplaces nationwide, as many employers opt to invest in a machine, rather than hiring people.

In November, a study from the University of Oxford suggested that a third of UK jobs could be replaced by machines over the next two decades.

Low-paid jobs featuring repetitive tasks are most likely to be superseded by technology, with clerical and support service jobs most at risk.

The study further found that jobs with a salary under £30,000 are almost five times more likely to be replaced than jobs over £100,000.


Now, I am not going to try to engage the brain the power of Stephen in direct debate - but I will simply point out that his case can be condensed into IF we can build true artificial intelligence and IF it has an urge to build better versions of itself and IF it has the resources to construct such improvements, it will evolve faster than humans.

That does not seem to me to be a conclusive case that machines will eradicate humanity. Three big IF's and one disconnect is less stellar than his other works.
The only reality is the moment that we call "Now".
= = = =
We evolved to seek dinner, not to seek the truth - Mark Whatever
User avatar
Bill
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 5027
Images: 1
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 1:23 pm
Location: South Orange, CA
Blog: View Blog (8)
Affiliation: Agnostic
Country: United States

Re: Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end

Postby romansh » Wed Dec 03, 2014 7:54 pm

I did not buy this when I read it awhile back either.

But to be fair Hawking did say potentially

But then a virus or bacteria could potentially the same thing, with the minimum of intelligence.
"That's right!" shouted Vroomfondel, "we demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!"
Douglas Adams
User avatar
romansh
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 4671
Images: 23
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:46 pm
Location: BC/US border - in the woods
Affiliation: Agnostic

Re: Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end

Postby Carol » Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:02 am

Eventually were all doomed at some point, it just remains to be seen exactly what will take us out. I'm remembering watching Cosmos and the projected events that "could" eradicate life on earth, if not the earth itself. Now here's another "potential" threat to life. Which one will win? Take a wild guess.
"These people believe there is no truth to seek in nature, but only in the comparison of texts." Galileo
User avatar
Carol
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 2071
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:55 am
Location: Beautiful North Idaho
Blog: View Blog (1)
Affiliation: Agnostic
Country: United States

Re: Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end

Postby gilnv » Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:08 pm

If artificial intelligence replaces humankind what would be it's motivation. Doesn't it NEED a motivation?
It has no motivation. Why would a machine do anything? Isn't Stephan Hawking being anthropomorphic and attributing human characteristics to machines?
The machine desires to? The machine wants to, decides to? I can't write a big enough 'Hmmmmm' to appropriately respond here.
P.S. Also, we are assuming there is no spirit or soul attached to humans when we claim we are doomed. Who knows? I'm not ruling out any reasons for sentience here. :!:
the divine isn't a living entity, it is the living force within all of us.
- Sadhguru
User avatar
gilnv
Senior Member
Senior Member
 
Posts: 890
Images: 2
Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2010 6:59 am
Affiliation: Agnostic

Re: Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end

Postby Carol » Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:33 am

gilnv wrote:P.S. Also, we are assuming there is no spirit or soul attached to humans when we claim we are doomed. Who knows? I'm not ruling out any reasons for sentience here. :!:


Sorry Gil, I automatically assume there is no soul or spirit since those attachments were contrived by our long distant relatives....those blasted flat-earthers and center of universe folks.

A soul or spirit obviously retains memories after death according to most stories and I have a time wrapping my thoughts around "something" that can still think after the brain is dust. So, like I said, I automatically go there.... :)

On the others hand, I do see your point that AI would not have a reason/cause for taking over and conquering mankind. Yes, what would be "its" goal?
"These people believe there is no truth to seek in nature, but only in the comparison of texts." Galileo
User avatar
Carol
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 2071
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:55 am
Location: Beautiful North Idaho
Blog: View Blog (1)
Affiliation: Agnostic
Country: United States

Re: Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end

Postby Bill » Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:31 am

A new (to me) notion that a replacement of the Turing Test for determining if artificial intelligence is self aware is that the entity would display self preservation mechanisms. For example, a robot threatened with being permanently switched off would perhaps abscond, or even kill in order to ensure the switch was not turned off.

If self preservation is really a trait of "true" AI, then the threat to future humanity from mechanical intelligence is not so much that the AI would decide to eliminate humanity because humans are not worthy of co-existence, but to protect themselves from being terminated by those humans.
The only reality is the moment that we call "Now".
= = = =
We evolved to seek dinner, not to seek the truth - Mark Whatever
User avatar
Bill
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 5027
Images: 1
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 1:23 pm
Location: South Orange, CA
Blog: View Blog (8)
Affiliation: Agnostic
Country: United States

Re: Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end

Postby romansh » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:45 pm

Does this not assume that this intelligence that is developed or develops is pluralistically minded?
"That's right!" shouted Vroomfondel, "we demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!"
Douglas Adams
User avatar
romansh
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 4671
Images: 23
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:46 pm
Location: BC/US border - in the woods
Affiliation: Agnostic

Re: Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence could spell end

Postby Bill » Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:48 pm

Not as far as I can tell. I am sure all the istics have some awareness of the trait of self-preservation, but none claim sole ownership. As far as I am aware.

I was simply positing that the threat from any future artificial intelligence is not likely to be some automatic "winner take all" act similar to human tribalism, but the reaction to a perceived threat that humans had decided to terminate the AI program.
The only reality is the moment that we call "Now".
= = = =
We evolved to seek dinner, not to seek the truth - Mark Whatever
User avatar
Bill
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 5027
Images: 1
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 1:23 pm
Location: South Orange, CA
Blog: View Blog (8)
Affiliation: Agnostic
Country: United States


Return to Biological Sciences

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron